I like to focus my 2015 EM risk on being short CHFMXN.
Why this cross specifically? I will be break it into 4 components.
1. EURUSD: Euro is in a downtrend against dollar. In the absence of some unforeseeable shifts, we can expect the trend to continue. Especially if US interest rates follow the market-predicted path.
2. EURCHF: SNB appears to be serious about holding the 120 level. The risk on this cross is skewed to the upside.
3. USD vs. EM: EM took a beating in the end of 2014. All else being equal it is likely to rebound, as allocators come back from their vacations. Meanwhile we can enjoy the carry.
4. MXN vs. EM: Mexico stands to benefit more than any other country from strong US economy and strong dollar. True, Mexico is an energy exporter. But it is not Venezuela. Its economy is robust and diverse. The oil price collapse is priced fully in MXN.
If any of those four things goes south – hopefully the other three will cushion the blow.
