1. If I had to guess: it is just at the bottom – maximum momentum.
2. I would look for shifts in the thinking of Central Banks. When ECB and BOJ start feeling they are getting traction, and the Fed is concerned about new slowdown more than about inflation – I would look for the momentum to turn.
3. If think delaying the hike will only delay the dollar rally and not by much, unless the perception of a fundamental shift develops. However, the longer they delay, the higher is the chance of unforeseen economic or geopolitical events interfering and changing the policy course.
CIO, HonTe Investments. Ran global macro at JPM. Yahoo! Finance Contributor. Ph.D. in Mathematics. Author, The Next Perfect Trade. No investment advice.
