This is an inherently difficult question, since a sequence of events, which would turn around a 30-year secular trend, is not something I am likely to anticipate. So my attitude is to go with the trend I know for now and keep my eyes open.

A few things one might watch:

1. A turnaround in inflation expectations in Euroland and Japan.

2. Substantial reversal of the dollar trend

3. A big rally in gold as a leading inflation indicator

4. Politically engineered wage pressure

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