This is an inherently difficult question, since a sequence of events, which would turn around a 30-year secular trend, is not something I am likely to anticipate. So my attitude is to go with the trend I know for now and keep my eyes open.
A few things one might watch:
1. A turnaround in inflation expectations in Euroland and Japan.
2. Substantial reversal of the dollar trend
3. A big rally in gold as a leading inflation indicator
4. Politically engineered wage pressure
CIO, HonTe Investments. Ran global macro at JPM. Yahoo! Finance Contributor. Ph.D. in Mathematics. Author, The Next Perfect Trade. No investment advice.
