Thank you for your support. And thank you for keeping me honest and clear. Like many traders I have an emotional bias towards inertia. It is easier for me to keep running a profitable position than to enter a new position mid-trend. Being aware of this bias, I try to be particularly disciplined on this issue.
The reality is that if I didn’t have any USDCNH on today, I would have immediately put some on and mostly likely wait for pullbacks to increase. But it is true that I would have been unlikely to build my delta to the current size if I didn’t have some profits in it already.
It is not just about the bias towards emotional comfort though. The bid-offer of executing such trades in the vol form in non-trivial. And as risk-reward diminishes but remains positive, I am less likely to pay bid-offer to enter, but not likely to pay bid-offer to exit.
Good luck in 2016.
CIO, HonTe Investments. Ran global macro at JPM. Yahoo! Finance Contributor. Ph.D. in Mathematics. Author, The Next Perfect Trade. No investment advice.
